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Crystal Palace vs Tottenham

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 31.7%

Draw: 25.6%

Tottenham win: 42.7%

Predicted: Tottenham

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.9

More corners: Tottenham (47.0% home / 53.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Crystal Palace

Yes

Probability Crystal Palace wins or draws: 75.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Tottenham Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 32%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Crystal Palace win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.